How to Keep Your Cool throughout the NCAA Basketball Tournament
This chapter could just as easily be focused on the entire NCAA Basketball season. But we’re going to address March Madness specifically and you can apply the information to any aspect of the long college basketball season. This is a cautionary chapter for you to use prior to and throughout the tournament. If you find yourself panicking or making bets that are too big for your wallet read this article again.
Estimate Your Best Outcome
The first thing that you want to do is to estimate your best outcome. You’ll do this by first establishing the size of your bankroll for the entire tournament. If you have $200 for the entire tournament and each unit is worth $10 and you bet 20 units on each round and win every single bet, you will have made a lot of cash. How much?
Well, that would be about $1,000. But that’s not the best outcome. You could take all of your winnings from each round and also wager using those. How much can you make doing that? That would be about $6,400.
Okay, that’s enough fantasizing. There’s no chance you’ll even come close to that. Put that notion to bed.
Estimate Your Worst Outcome
That one is simple, right? With a $200 bankroll the most you can lose is $200. That is unless you decide to dip into your cash reserve for round two and throw another $200 that you also lose. Then in the Sweet 16, you do the same and so on and so forth. So, if you go crazy, you could lose about $1,000.
Don’t do that either. You must wager only with money that you can afford to lose.
Estimate Your Most Likely Outcome
Again, let’s be realistic. With a $200 bankroll how much can you really win? In round one, you’ll bet eight to 10 units. If you bet 10 units and win seven, you’ll be up about $40. That means that going into round two you have $240.
In round two, you risk $120 or 12 units. Again, let’s say that you win, but this time you take eight units. You’ve lost four or $40 and won $80. You’ve won $40 more dollars and your bankroll is at $280.
In the Sweet 16, let’s say you break even and in the Elite Eight you wager using 14 units and win nine. You’ve won $40 more. You’re now at $320. If you wager eight units on the final four and lose both, you’re down to $240.
In the Finals, you bet three units and win. You finish the tournament at $270, making a profit of $70. Are you impressed? You should be, you’ve increased your bankroll by 35%! That’s pretty darn good.
The Point Being
You need to enter the tournament with realistic expectations. A 35% gain makes sense. Keep your expectations in line with your bankroll and wager using smarts and common sense.